The steps in creating the theory of change, starts backward from the impact goal.
Step 1. Determine impact goal(s) – what kind of change in society do you want to promote?
It is important to articulate the change you are seeking to promote. The temptation is always mentioning the outputs, for example, “we deliver bed nets in malaria-ridden locations”.
However, there is an underlying impact goal. For instance, bed nets are presumably intended to reduce the incidence of malaria, improve health and possibly increase lifespan or reduce poverty. The desired impact should be clearly defined and stated in terms of the specific change desired and the specific population who will benefit. It should be also realistic and succinct.
Step 2. Develop a theory – what do you have to do to achieve the impact goal?