Now comes the exciting part: analysing the collected data and drawing conclusions. Just like we recommend that the measuring instruments are sufficiently substantiated, we also recommend the use of substantiated methodologies for data analysis.
You can start from two perspectives, deductive or inductive.
Deductive analysis: relate the data collected to the expected effects and assumptions of the Theory of Change.
Are the effects clear?
Are the results higher or lower than expected?
Are the assumptions confirmed?
Causality. To what extent is there a link between the effects and the activities? This can only be shown and proven in comparison to a control group.
Negative / unintended effects. Are there any unanticipated negative or unintended side effects taking place?
Inductive analysis: let the data speak for itself. Look for patterns, themes or categories in the data.